Backstory
Why Will People be Moving to Cincinnati?
Understanding Previous Climate Migration Events
There is a long history of climatic events in the United States that have caused a mass migration of people. We foresee this occurring more frequently in the future as sea levels rise and weather events worsen. The Midwest will be an optimal location for those moving due to climate change, providing Cincinnati with an opportunity to accommodate and integrate this new population of climate migrants while improving the fabric of the city.
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To better understand previous migration events we have created a graphic timeline that outlines the impacts of major climate disasters. To read more about any one event please click on the buttons below.
Climate Migration to the Midwest
Image Created by Anna Stanley
National & International Migration
According to migration data, the Midwest will see a large influx of climate migrants in the coming years which could cause major planning-related consequences if left unchecked.
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This data suggests that we will see a number of migrants, not only from coastal areas within the United States, but also from other climate-impacted locations around the globe.
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680,000 - 1,000,000 international climate migrants
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6,800,000 - 19,400,000 national climate migrants
Two Types of Climate Migrants
The household type that we expect to migrate to the Midwest will vary depending on their situation, but we've identified two main groups:
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Migrants Moving for Opportunity.
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Migrants Moving for Necessity.
While both groups are moving due to climatic impacts, the migrants moving for necessity are more likely to have been directly impacted by climate events. Whereas, migrants moving for opportunity will often do so as a preventative measure or for new job and housing opportunities.
Effect of Climate Migration on the U.S.
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The greater Midwest will see an increase in population as it will become the most temperate region in the country.
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The Midwest will by only moderately impacted by hazardous weather and increased temperatures. The region can expect to see high crop yields and remain an area of high suitability.
Overall, the state of Ohio is expected to remain within the prime suitability zone of North America well into the future, including in models of extreme warming.
Cincinnati (from 2040-2060 model projections) is a prime city for relocation as in the future it cannot be directly affected by sea level rise, will not be largely impacted by wildfires, and will not often experience combined heat and humidity events.
It is expected that Cincinnati will have comparatively mild temperatures, and will not see a decline in farm crop yields, but instead an increase of 6.5% - 15.7%. These factors make Cincinnati an ideal location for those looking for a new home after moving due to climate change.
Learning From the Green Cincinnati Plan
The Green Cincinnati Plan (GCP) outlines how the City of Cincinnati is working towards making the city more sustainable, equitable, and resilient. The GCP has multiple Focus Area Plans, these showcase the City’s goals and how they aim to achieve them. The focus areas most relevant to our project are:
* The 2023 update to the GCP notes the creation of a climate in-migration response plan as a priority action
Case Studies Looked At
We looked at a variety of innovative housing case studies, inspiring the creation of our housing typologies found on the Climate Havens Page. If you would like to view more information about any of the case studies click on the buttons below.
1633 Broadway
Commercial-to-Residential Conversion
New York City, New York
This case study looks at methods of aiding an acute housing shortage in New York City and uses vacant office buildings as a solution, completely transforming them into living spaces. Using this case study we discovered how we can create successful commercial to residential conversions in Cincinnati and will be utilizing this as one of our building typologies.
